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Racer Susan (susiesunshine)
Race Number 144
Date Tue, 11 Dec 2012 20:29:41 +0000
Speed 125 WPM Try to beat?
Accuracy 93.8%
Rank 1st place (out of 5)
Opponents khlavkalash (5th place) paribaba (2nd place) pentalon (3rd place) ryno9828 (4th place)

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The pathology of setting a deadline to the earliest articulable date essentially guarantees that the schedule will be missed. Even the strategy of picking the "most likely date" is not particularly safe, as the area to the left of the peak of the curve is barely a third. That says there is a two-thirds chance of missing the deadline.
Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects (book) by Tom DeMarco, Timothy Lister (see stats)